Ag Market Commentary

By the close, front month corn futures had receded 1/2 to 1 3/4 cents. The trade range had Dec prices from 2 cents higher to 2 1/4 cents lower at various points throughout the session. The national average corn basis from cmdtyView was 31 cents under Dec on 9/23. That is 16 cents weaker than Sept 2019, with the national average cash price down 20 cents year/year despite this month’s rally. Ahead of tomorrow’s Export Sales report, analysts estimate between 1.05 and 1.8 MMT of corn bookings for the week ending 9/17. EIA average daily ethanol production for the week ending 9/18 was 906,000 bpd. That was 20,000 bpd lower than the week prior, and a 13 week low. Stocks were back up by 199k barrels to 19.997 million. Ethanol FOB prices were $1.489/gal which was down 2.7 cents wk/wk. Brazil’s FOB prices were $1.617/gal for the week ending 9/23 as reported by U.S. Grains Council. South Korea’s MFG purchased 134,000 MT of optional origin corn from international tender.

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.68 1/2, down 3/4 cent,

Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.77 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents,

May 21 Corn closed at $3.83, down 1 1/2 cents,

Jul 21 Corn closed at $3.86 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



At Wednesday’s closing bell front month soybean futures were down by 3 1/2 to 5 3/4 cents. The national average soybean basis from cmdtyView was 56.67 cents under Nov on 9/23. Compared to last year, that is 25 c/bu stronger. Meal futures maintained their rally, closing the midweek session with gains of $2.7 to $4.8/ton. Bean oil futures fell back another 80 to 98 points on the day. This morning, USDA announced 132,000 MT of beans sold to China and 126,000 MT sold to unknown. Analysts estimate USDA will show between 2-3 MMT of bean bookings in tomorrow’s Export Sales report. Much of that is “known” business from the daily reporting system. The weekly update is also expected to show 0-100,000 MT of meal sold with 19/20 delivery. Meal bookings with 2020/21 delivery are estimated between 200-400k MT. BO bookings are estimated to combine between 0-40k MT.

Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $10.14 1/2, down 5 1/4 cents,

Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $10.18 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents,

Mar 21 Soybeans closed at $10.13 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents,

May 21 Soybeans closed at $10.10 1/4, down 5 1/4 cents,

Oct 20 Soybean Meal closed at $342.10, up $4.80

Oct 20 Soybean Oil closed at $32.69, down $0.98

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Front month wheat futures closed the midweek session in the red. Front month HRS wheat futures fell 3 3/4 to 6 3/4 cents on the day. HRW futures closed down by 7 to 7 3/4 cents. CBT futures closed the session with 7 1/4 to 9 cents lower. The national average SRW basis from cmdtyView was 27 cents under Dec on 9/23. That is 8 cents/bu weaker compared to the same date last year. Traders expect tomorrow’s Export Sales report to show between 250-600k MT of wheat bookings from the week ending 9/17. BAGE estimates Argentina 2020/21 wheat production at 17.5 MMT, down 3.5 MMT from the May estimate. USDA has Argentine wheat output at 19.5 MMT for 2020/21. South Korea purchased 65,000 MT of feed optional origin feed wheat. Japan’s MOA issued a wheat tender seeking 86,027 MT, with 58,385 US specific. Results are expected tomorrow.

Dec 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.49, down 9 cents,

Dec 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.84 1/4, down 7 1/2 cents,

Dec 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.33, down 6 3/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management




Cattle futures closed the midweek session $0.47 to $1.02 higher on the day. Feeder cattle futures ended the session 30 to 90 cents higher. Sept feeders, with 955 contracts OI (as of 9/22), closed $142 flat ahead of tomorrow’s expiration. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was a $0.28 premium to Sept futures, at $142.28 for September 22. In the FCE auction this morning, 219 of the 683 head sold at $104 and $104.25. Wednesday business picked up, with USDA reporting 1,853 sold throughout cattle country at $105 and $164 live and dressed respectively. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Wednesday tightening the Choice premium by 87 cents. Choice boxes were quoted @ $215.87 and Select was $1.30 higher to $207.60. Primal ribs were quoted at $367.13 and $341.95 cwt. for Choice and Select respectively. Choice loins were $21.41 cwt. above Select @ $293.93. USDA estimates the week’s FI cattle slaughter through Wednesday at 361k head. That compares to 360,000 head LW and 350,000 head LY.

Oct 20 Cattle closed at $107.150, up $0.675,

Dec 20 Cattle closed at $111.200, up $1.025,

Feb 21 Cattle closed at $114.800, up $0.600,

Sep 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.000, up $0.300

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $141.525, up $0.900

Nov 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $141.650, up $0.475

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Pre-report positioning left the front months within 25 cents of UNCH. October hog futures rallied another $1.17 on the day. The CME Lean Hog Index for 9/21 was $72.17, up another $0.88. USDA’s National Average Afternoon Base Hog price for Wednesday was $1 higher @ $64.35. The average of analyst estimates for the Hogs & Pigs report has USDA showing 78.675m head for the national herd as of Sept 1. Hogs kept for breeding are estimated to be 2.5% lower yr/yr, and market hogs are forecasted 0.6% higher. June-August farrowings are estimated 4.3% lower yr/yr and the pig crop is forecasted to fall back 5%. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was quoted at $88.97 this afternoon, up 31 cents. USDA estimates the week’s FI hog slaughter is 1.45 million head through Wednesday. That is up 60,000 head yr/yr.

Oct 20 Hogs closed at $69.500, up $1.175,

Dec 20 Hogs closed at $64.350, up $0.250

Feb 21 Hogs closed at $69.075, unch,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



At Wednesday’s closing bell front month cotton futures ended the session 8 to 35 points lower. The US dollar index was higher on Wednesday. The national average spot cotton price from cmdtyView was 61.54 cents/lb on 9/22. That is 1.41 cents higher yr/yr, on a 4.37 cent/lb higher board price. USDA reported 2,985 bales were sold at spot, almost exclusively from W. TX, at an av price of 59.64 cents/lb. The Cotlook A index for Sept 22 was 70.70 c/lb, down by 25 points. The AWP for cotton is 50.88 cents/lb. The LDP is at 1.12 cents, both good through Tomorrow.

Oct 20 Cotton closed at 63.76, down 8 points,

Dec 20 Cotton closed at 65.25, down 29 points

Mar 21 Cotton closed at 66.14, down 33 points

May 21 Cotton closed at 66.93, down 35 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






<p>Market Commentary provided by:<br /> <img src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/images1.aws.barchart.com/logos/bruglerlogo.gif" border="0" /><br /> Brugler Marketing &amp; Management LLC<br /> 1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022<br /> Phone: 402-697-3623<br /> Fax: 402-289-2353<br /> E-mail: <a href="mailto:alanb@bruglermktg.com">alanb@bruglermktg.com</a><br /> Web: <a href="http://bruglermarketing.com/">http://bruglermarketing.com</a></p> <p align="center"><!-- [if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:DoNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> 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